Chart by TradingView
BTC managed to make a third weekly close above the 21-week and 200-day moving average as the largest cryptocurrency continues the bull market continuation validation phase.
After rallying higher for 5 consecutive weeks with near-term momentum slowing and bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, consolidation can be expected. Resistance at $50k continues to be the near-term level that BTC must successfully close above in order to follow up on the breakout and bull market continuation.
$48.1k has been a near-term level of support and resistance as BTC has traded in and out of this level multiple times during the week. So far, the price has held the green zone of support between $48.1k and $46k, a positive consolidation signal.
Technical analysts have warned of a potential pullback to the $42k area as a large rising wedge, and bearish divergence has been forming. This is something to watch closely, but we have to factor in aggregate on-chain data and BTC fundamentals which continue to show strength.
For a larger pullback to $42k to occur, BTC will need to close below the 200-day moving average currently at $46.1k. This will likely require a near-term catalyst such as a news event or a larger than expected long liquidation with low liquidity.
BTC bulls, instead, would like to see sideways consolidation between $47k to $50k, which will continue to help exhaust supply in this key range, and set up for another retest of $50k, potentially leading to a breakout to the $55k to $58k resistance zone.
It has been over 3 weeks since the Hash Ribbon flashed a bullish cross, triggering a long-term fundamental buy signal. BTC is up by 8.8% since the buy signal flashed, which is impressive considering previous signals have led to multi-week or month-long consolidations before a larger rally. The BTC hash rate is expected to push higher as more miners plug into the network after the migration out of China.
Consistent demand for mining hardware and facilities continues to suggest Bitcoin miners are bullish on the long-term outlook for BTC. Even with a near-term correction from $50.5k to $46.3k, miner reserves remained flat, slightly below 1.85 million BTC. This can be seen as a very bullish signal considering the increase in mining difficulty, which can lower the amount of BTC rewarded to miners depending on computing power generated.
The weekly chart continues to improve, with the WMA convergence divergence indicator forming a bullish cross and trending higher. If BTC can hold current levels and continue its upward direction, weekly momentum is expected to flash a bullish pulse, suggesting a powerful rally could be coming in the months ahead.
