Tone Vays. Photo from Tone's Twitter
The crypto markets have seen renewed exuberance in the price category over the past couple weeks. As of the last few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to even further heights, involving irrational price action, according to crypto analyst and expert Tone Vays.
CryptoPotato caught up with Vays during Consensus 2019 conference for an interview, catching a few of his thoughts on the market. “As of the last couple of days, the market has been acting very irrationally” Vays noted.
After Bitcoin’s fall to around $3,000, Vays expected a bull trap up to the $5,100 range, with bull trap highs all the ways up to roughly $6,400 he explained. Bitcoin recently has pushed through those levels, all the way up past $8,000.
Regarding the price surge past the stated bull trap zone, Vays said,
“We’ve broken $6,400, and in a matter of days, went all the way to $8,300. I don’t understand why that happened. I don’t see anything in the charts that should have caused it. I don’t see anything changing fundamentally that should’ve caused it. This current move makes no sense to me.”
Due to the stated price action, Vays is proceeding with caution, he explained, even watching to sell part of his “HODL position,” as he expects a sizeable pullback in price lies ahead. “If we pull back 30 to 40%, [and are] able to maintain a high above $4,000, it might be that the bear market has ended,” the chart expert said, although, he added, “I would rather be cautious […] than FOMO in.”
The market’s recent upswing and irrational exuberance have sounded the alarms in Vays’ head. “The more irrational a move up, the bigger the pain,” he explained. “We saw what happened the last time the market move up irrationally. We hit $20,000, and are, I believe, still suffering for it.”
If the market continues to move up to $10,000 to $12,000, Vays thinks the ramifications will remain relatively similar to what they are at current, except with varying price points. “The ramifications will always be the same in percentage terms,” he said. “A 40% correction from 10 [thousand] takes us down to 6 [thousand], which is fine, but the levels don’t change.”
Currently, Vays said he is looking toward the levels of $4,000, $6,000, and potentially $5,000 as key retracement levels, depending on where Bitcoin’s price tops out. At the time of the May 14 interview, with BTC price around $7,800, Vays said a fall in price to $4,000 would be most likely, although he added, “if we drop from 10 to 4, it’s very likely we’re going to go sub-3.” The analyst also noted seeing price fall below $3,000 would not be as likely if the price only dropped from $6,000 to $4,000.
It is important to note that price action can change within seconds. With those changes, come alterations in analysis, possible outcomes, statistical expectations, etc. Expectations for price can vary greatly, even hour to hour. That being said, Vays described the basic occurrences necessary for him to call a bull market for Bitcoin, based on price action at the time of the May 14 interview.
“The easiest answer is, for me to call a bull market I need a very clear pullback of 30% and a sustained higher low. Ideally, that low would be somewhere between $4,000 and $6,000 at this point. If we pull back to that area, make a clear new low, rebound and start to approach the swing highs, which at the moment is $8,300, then I will be convinced a bull market is back.
Vays also added hesitation on calling a bull market before altcoins and initial coin offerings (ICOs) die entirely. Historically, Vays has been vocal on his views that the altcoin space will see failure as a whole.
