TL;DR
James Seyffart – research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence – believes launching a spot XRP ETF in the United States before this year’s end is highly improbable given several important factors.
First, he named the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which still triggers uncertainty around the cryptocurrency’s status.
Then, he reminded that there are already futures Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in America, which pave the way for the approval of spot funds. However, this is not the case with Ripple (XRP):
“We have futures already trading in the CME that are regulated by the CFTC, which is a regulated market, and then we have the futures ETFs, which also are kind of like pushing this thing along as well. We don’t have any of that for Ripple.”
Seyffart thinks 2025 seems like a more realistic target for a potential launch of a spot XRP ETF in the States, assuming the regulatory environment has improved.
Meanwhile, the SEC recently approved wave of spot BTC ETF applications, including those of BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and more. The confusion surrounding the green light triggered significant volatility for Bitcoin’s price, which currently trades at around $46,300 (per CoinGecko’s data).
The legal battle between the two organizations is heading towards its final act, with a grand trial scheduled for April 23, 2024. Ripple seemingly has the upper hand, securing three vital (yet partial) victories last year.
Both parties are required to comply with all necessary procedures before meeting in court. The SEC must file its brief with respect to remedies by March 13, 2024, while Ripple must file its opposition by April 12, 2024.
The outcome of the case is highly anticipated since a decisive win for the company could propel an overall market boom and increase the legitimacy of the whole industry. On the other hand, a potential victory for the securities regulator might negatively impact the sector and lead to the implementation of stringent rules that could impede investors’ interest.
