According to Ross Ulbricht, best-known for creating and operating the darknet market website Silk Road, Bitcoin’s price is headed downward. Using the Elliot Wave Theory for his analysis, Ulbricht believes that there might be more pain ahead, taking the price significantly lower.
In a detailed blog post, Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the infamous Silk Road dark market, pointed out that Bitcoin’s price may be headed lower.
According to the popular Elliot Wave Theory, the price for the primary cryptocurrency could decrease to as low as $1,200. However, it’s worth pointing out that this is the bottom range of his analysis, as the movement of the current “Wave II” could take the price to anywhere between $2,800 and $1,200.
Supposedly, the current wave marks a correction which “often ends in the price range of the previous fourth wave of one less degree.” This wave is the one from back in 2014 and the two previous bear markets reduced the prices by 86% and 94%.
“An equivalent reduction by wave II would take prices to $2,800 or $1,200. Wave A of II reduced prices by 84%. An equivalent reduction by wave C of II would take prices to $2,200.” – Ulbricht explains.
However, Ulbricht also says that it’s hard to estimate the duration of the wave and that it’s rather imprecise. He explains that there are two probable scenarios, the first of which ends around June or July of this year, while the second one “could drag on into 2021.”
Ulbricht says that a break below the major low of $3,200, which is where Bitcoin traded back in December 2018, would be a solid confirmation of the pattern. This is when he “will be trying to determine when the final low is in.”
To invalidate this theory, Bitcoin’s price would have to increase towards $14,000 which is the high of 2019. Yet, he says that “at this point that seems like a very unlikely scenario.”
It’s also worth noting that the theory Ulbricht is using is so far playing out. During December, he said:
“A drop below the beginning of wave 2 (around $4,200) would invalidate the impulsive count of wave (5) because wave 4 cannot overlap wave 2… This would indicate a much greater likelyhood that our second scenario is playing out.”
Bitcoin’s price has indeed dropped below $4,200 on March 12th-13th when it touched $3,600.
Featured image courtesy of Vanity Fair
