Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley published a report on Tuesday arguing that Bitcoin (BTC)’s upcoming halving event in six months may be the dawn of a new bull market.
With reference to Bitcoin’s “four seasons,” the bank claimed that “crypto winter” may already be over.
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management defines cryptocurrency “winter” as a period of the “four-year cryptocurrency cycle” that begins after Bitcoin taps an all-time high and investors begin to sell their assets and scare off new investments. It usually lasts about 13 months before the next price trough.
This period follows the crypto Spring when Bitcoin slowly recovers from its trough, but investor interest remains low.
“Based on current data, signs indicate that crypto winter may be in the past and that crypto spring is likely on the horizon,” wrote Denny Galindo, author of the report.
Galindo claimed that both the timing and magnitude of Bitcoin’s drawdown is worth considering when trying to mark the end of crypto winter. “Previous troughs were about 83% off their respective highs,” he wrote.
Bitcoin tapped its current all-time high in November 2021 at $69,000. The lowest price it has seen since then was $15,500 in November 2022 after crypto exchange FTX filed for bankruptcy – a 77% drawdown from the peak. Exchange problems, such as bankruptcies, are also a good indicator of a trough, according to Morgan Stanley.
Bitcoin now trades for $28,600 – up 72% year to date. “A 50% increase in price from bitcoin’s low is typically a good sign that the trough has been achieved,” the bank added.
The Bitcoin halving is when Bitcoin’s supply issuance rate is cut in half every four years, making it doubly difficult to mine each time. The next halving will reduce coins earned per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Like many analysts, Morgan Stanley theorized that such halvings are directly related to the four-year cryptocurrency cycle, of which three have occurred so far. “By intentionally limiting the supply of new bitcoin, the shortage caused by the halving can affect the price of bitcoin to potentially spur a bull run,’ the bank noted.
British multinational bank Standard Chartered is also bullish on the upcoming halving. In July, the bank predicted that Bitcoin would reach $50,000 by the end of the year and $120,000 by the end of 2024.
Some analysts believe Bitcoin’s price appreciation following halving events is pure coincidence and that the asset’s price moves are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors.