Bitcoin (BTC) will blow past $250,000 this cycle thanks to years of HODLer conviction slingshotting its price to the moon, according to lead Glassnode analyst James Check.
In an interview with What Bitcoin Did on Thursday, the analyst broke down why the Bitcoin market appears far more robust compared to the last time the asset’s price touched $69,000.
According to Check, the Bitcoin network entered a “bull market distribution phase” after U.S. Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity went live in January. That means that high-conviction HODLers who kept coins for over 155 days are starting to sell their assets at a profit – a trend that normally helps identify Bitcoin cycle tops.
At both the start of 2017 and in 2021, entry into this phase was followed by massive run-ups well beyond previous all-time highs within a few months to a year. However, thanks to massive persistent inflows coming from Bitcoin ETFs, the analyst believes the bull cycle could last much longer.
“For Bitcoin, it’s gonna really be about the passive flows now,” he said. “I want to have exposure, it’s X% of my portfolio, I don’t really care about what the number is… all I really care about is ‘give me that 1% allocation.”
Numerous popular investment funds, including BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund, have already shown interest in buying into Bitcoin ETFs with a part of their portfolio. Since launch, the ETFs have collectively absorbed over $9.3 billion in net flows.
The health of the market in terms of newfound demand is visible on-chain by looking at changes in Bitcoin’s “realized cap” – the total value of all coins based on the price at which coins last moved.
The metric, which Check considers the “backbone metric” of his on-chain analysis, has reached all-time highs in recent months, keeping the total Bitcoin network’s unrealized gains from reaching highs that are unsustainable long term.
Given the strong demand, the analyst said he’d be “very surprised if we don’t crack $250,000 this cycle.”
“I do think that the last cycle was truncated because of GBTC – I think we went up too far too fast,” he explained. “The structure I’m seeing in this uptrend is very, very robust.”
Check finished by giving creditors to Bitcoin HODLers for “pulling back the slingshot” on Bitcoin’s price, soaking up the network’s circulating supply in 2023. Demand returning to the market through ETFs, by contrast, allowed that slingshot to fly.
“This is just the marginal bid looking for those coins – that’s why the price goes up so quickly,” he said.