Chart by TradingView
BTC’s near-term technicals continue to show strength as the price has reclaimed the 200-day moving average and $47.2k – a key level according to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution metric.
The bulls managed to push BTC back into the green zone, an essential level of support/resistance.
Given the near term technical momentum and strengthening trend in fundamentals and on-chain metrics, it’s looking more likely for $42.8k to be the bottom of the near term pullback. The strong hands holding older coins continue to accumulate, while the weaker hands with younger coins sold.
Most recently, the 3 to 6-month cohort responsible for most of the selling appears to be cooling off. This suggests that the group could be reaching capitulation. Keep in mind, a large portion of it accumulated between $50k to $64.8k, while some have added in the $30k area, when factoring in aging.
This is a positive signal as this group continues to age because the 3 to 6-month coins will start including the July to August time frame where BTC was consolidating in the low 30k range. The bulls need to see the cohort show signs of holding instead of selling as large amount of BTC has been accumulated by large entities between June to August, according to on-chain data.
There are external risks appearing in the market such as the Evergrande debt crisis with over $300B in debt at risk. Investors must be aware of this developing issue and how it could impact global sentiment on risk assets as some fear this could be another Lehman moment from the financial crisis.
Despite the near-term risk, the overall trend in fundamentals, technicals, and on-chain remains bullish. This suggests BTC could be on the way to retesting $50k sometime next week if the momentum continues. Bulls need to protect $47.2k near term, and continue pushing higher into the green zone.
