Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model creator and analyst PlanB has identified a level which he believes Bitcoin (BTC) will never go below again.
According to a tweet by the controversial analyst, BTC is “highly unlikely” to ever move below $33,000, which is also its 200-week moving average. This prediction applies to post-halving slumps and subsequent bear markets.
The outcome of PlanB’s latest analysis differs from his prediction in early February. At the time, he said BTC may not go below $40,000, which was its five-month realized price.
Bitcoin had just recovered from the losses incurred by investors selling the news after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission approved the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The cryptocurrency had reached $45,000, and PlanB said a plunge to sub-$40,000 levels may not be seen again.
To substantiate his claims, the analyst has outlined Bitcoin’s realized prices on different scales: 2-year and 5-month realized prices of $32,000 and $40,000, respectively, and an overall price of $23,000. Since Bitcoin’s rally had pushed it above all the realized prices, it was unlikely that the asset would fall below $40,000.
However, with the change in on-chain dynamics and the continuation of the bull market, PlanB has altered his predictions, stating BTC will not go below $33,000. The overall realized price has increased to $29,000 and the 2-year and 5-month realized prices have also risen to $44,000 and $60,000, respectively. He identified the 2-year and 5-month realized prices as the conservative and aggressive floors, which BTC never goes below during bull markets.
In some way, PlanB’s prediction aligns with that of pattern analyst Trader Alan, who tweeted in March that BTC would hit “never come back line” this month. With a chart showing the never-come-back lines recorded in previous cycles, Trader Alan explained that BTC would never return to the $60,000 level, which is its 5-month realized price, as identified by PlanB.
Although PlanB’s S2F analysis has been accurate on several occasions, the model has also experienced some failures and may be considered inaccurate by community members. Nevertheless, the upcoming months would tell if he is correct or not.