Renowned on-chain analyst and brainchild of the popular Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, ‘PlanB’, has posted an update to the model and some latest predictions on the current bull market.
This is the fourth cycle since the asset’s inception in 2010 and one that could go much higher than current levels if history rhymes.
Bitcoin has made solid gains every month since the bull market began in December 2020 and we are only three and a half months into it according to this particular pricing model.
The Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model was initially published in March 2019, delving into the relationship between the production, or supply, and the current stock available, or circulation. It essentially calculates Bitcoin’s value through scarcity. The ‘X’ refers to the cross-asset version which includes other assets such as silver and gold.
‘PlanB’ predicts that prices will not stop at $100,000 during this cycle and will increase all the way up to around $288,000 though the all-time high may be above that.
The chart, which has been pretty accurate so far, predicts that prices will oscillate around the $250K level, hitting it around September 2021. The movements are based on Bitcoin halving events and the next leg up is scheduled for 2024 which could take prices over seven figures if things play out as predicted.
When asked about how he defines the beginnings of bull markets, ‘PlanB’ replied:
“I use a very clean mathematical definition for bull and bear markets, based on my on-chain models. So for me December 2020 was the first month of the bull market,”
He was also asked about the possibility of Bitcoin hitting $288K this year, to which he responded:
“Well 288 is the average for this 4yr cycle, so I guessed that we should be somewhere at that level by December this year, otherwise it will be difficult to keep the 4yr average at 288. That is the only reason I mention Dec 2021 frequently.”
At the time of press, Bitcoin was trading at $58,800 after gaining 4.25% over the past 24 hours. It appears to have formed a mini-consolidation range here during the Asian trading session but is targeting resistance at previous highs over $60,000. On the downside, support lies at $57,750 on the hourly timeframe.