Will This Week’s $2.5B Bitcoin Options Expiry Move Markets?

Around 27,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, May 2, and they have a notional value of roughly $2.54 billion.

This week’s event is around average compared to previous weeks, while derivatives crypto trading has remained muted as spot markets show signs of recovery.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 1, meaning that the short and long contract sellers are evenly matched. There is also a max pain point of $90,000, which is where most losses will be made on expiry.

Moreover, open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, is highest at the $100,000 strike price, with around $1.5 billion, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment as derivatives speculators bet on higher prices.

However, there is a fair amount of OI at the $80,000 and $65,000 strike prices as the bears are keeping their short options open, according to Deribit.

Options Expiry Alert
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $2.85B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $2.54B notional | Put/Call: 0.95 | Max Pain: $90K
$ETH: $316M notional | Put/Call: 0.88 | Max Pain: $1,800

Market shows strong BTC call stacking above $95K, what… pic.twitter.com/imA4XY34Eq

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) May 1, 2025

In a market update earlier this week, derivatives provider Greeks Live said “implied volatility is continuing to decline in the recent past, with short- and medium-term declines especially evident in BTC.”  Analysts added that the market is not anticipating much volatility going forward.

“Despite the BTC price oscillating at $95,000, market sentiment on the cryptocurrency side of the market is not high and can only be described as improving.”

“Derivatives markets are still relatively subdued,” concurred Deribit before adding, “BTC volatility trades low and steep with short-dated smiles skewed neutral, and funding rates remain close to zero after some negative spikes.”

In other words, short-term trading patterns appear neutral, and fees that traders pay to hold positions are staying close to zero.

In addition to today’s tranche of Bitcoin options, there are around 175,000 Ethereum contracts that are also expiring today, with a notional value of $317 million, a max pain point of $1,800, and a put/call ratio of 0.87. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $2.85 billion.

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets appear to be ending the week on a high note, with total capitalization up marginally to reach $3.12 trillion after a week of trading sideways.

Bitcoin was leading the pack as it has done all year, tapping $97,340 in an intraday high on Thursday. BTC had dipped just below $97,000 at the time of writing during the Friday morning Asian trading session, but was up 3% since the same time last week.

Ethereum had made minor gains, reaching $1,860, its highest level for a month, but prices remain at crypto winter lows despite the 2% gain.

Other altcoins doing well today include Dogecoin, Avalanche, Litecoin, and Hyperliquid.