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Bitcoin’s price performances for the past ten years or so have been dominated by bear and bull cycles.
In general, the BTC halving is regarded as the catalyst for the start of the bull market, while the last two years ahead of each such event are dictated by the bears.
Current Cycle
However, this hasn’t been the case during the ongoing run, which started in the middle of 2023 and was fueled initially by hype surrounding the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the States. Once those products became a reality in early 2024, the asset broke its 2021 all-time high and charted a new one of almost $74,000. This was the first time a new peak was registered ahead of a halving.
The reasoning behind this is that once those products saw the light of day, this meant that BTC is now a legitimate investment asset since the companies that launched them are some of the largest in the world, including BlackRock and Fidelity.
The inflows skyrocketed in the first few months, and even though the demand has somewhat flattened in the past several weeks, BTC’s price went on a massive run and still stands in a range between $60,000 and $70,000.
Additionally, the US Federal Reserve is rumored to start lowering the interest rates later this year, which is typically regarded as a bullish development for riskier assets like BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
Last but not least, the halving indeed took place a month ago. While most experts claim that the effects of each block reward slashing are diminishing in time, the fact of the matter is that the production of new BTC is declining and is now down to around 450 BTC per day. A lot less than the average accumulation rate by ETFs, whales, and retail investors.
When Will it End?
Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, asserted that BTC is currently in the middle of its ongoing bull cycle. He outlined a chart showing that bitcoin’s actual market cap is “growing faster than its realized cap,” which is a variation of the market cap that values each UTXO at the price it was last moved.
Such a trend typically lasts two years and would mean that the ongoing bull run will end within the next 11 months or so.
#Bitcoin is in the middle of the bull cycle.
Its market cap is growing faster than its realized cap, a trend that typically lasts around two years.
If this pattern continues, the bull cycle might end by April 2025. pic.twitter.com/o4k8B1Rkhv
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 17, 2024
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