One of the events the entire cryptocurrency community has its sights turned to is the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF proposal. It was published in the Federal Register back on February 20th, giving the SEC a legal timeframe of 90 days to make a further decision. This means that the Commission must come up with a decision tomorrow, May 21st.
May 21st – An Important Date for Bitcoin
The saga around VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF proposal has been going on for quite a while now. Last year, their application was withdrawn after being delayed on multiple occasions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, shortly after that, the application was submitted again, reigniting hope among those who believe that a Bitcoin ETF would catalyze a further increase in the price of the cryptocurrency, as well as further adoption.
The new application was filed with the Federal Register on February 20th, giving the SEC a binding term of 90 days to come up with a decision to approve, deny, or delay it. Interestingly enough, another Bitcoin ETF application was also filed with the Register on February 15th – that of Bitwise. The SEC delayed its decision on the latter, while even deciding to use the full 90 days term to make up its mind on the application of VanEck and SolidX. This is why May 21st is an important date to expect.
According to famous legal expert among the cryptocurrency community, Jake Chervinsky, however, the chances of a delay or denial are much higher than the chances of approval.
0/ This is no time for ETF hopium. If the SEC doesn’t delay the VanEck bitcoin ETF proposal, the most likely result is rejection, not approval.
The SEC delayed Bitwise last week, but still hasn’t made a decision on VanEck. Here’s why that’s a bad sign for ETF bulls.
— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) May 19, 2019
He bases his merit on the fact that the SEC is unlikely to approve the first-ever Bitcoin ETF without taking the full 240 days period that it legally can. Moreover, he also finds it rather unusual that the Commission didn’t delay the VanEck Bitcoin ETF together with that of Bitwise.
The lawyer also cited some of the reasons for the delay of the application of Bitwise, which include:
- The nature of the market for Bitcoin
- The efficiency of that market
- The susceptibility of that market to manipulation
- How the market is similar to markets for other commodities
- Reports that a large percentage of reported volume is fake
Chervinsky pointed out that if VanEck has any chance of approval, then the SEC “would need to delay & aks all these same questions to them as well.”
What Does This Mean For Bitcoin?
While it’s anyone’s guess how a potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF would impact Bitcoin’s price and whether it would surge, the majority of the cryptocurrency community is undoubtedly sure of it.
According to Josh Roger, a well-known cryptocurrency trader and investor, the different scenarios will have different impacts on the price.
The upcoming VanEck ETF decision could certainly have a serious impact on BTC price.
Denial = Pull back the current price regardless of how good it looked this weekend.
Approval = push the price to new yearly high and create mass FOMO buying.
Delay = Expected & likely little change.