Cardano ETF Update: Why May 29 Matters for ADA Holders

TL;DR

• The SEC could bring good news to the Cardano community this week by approving the first spot ADA ETF in the US.
• XRP, SOL, and DOGE also have multiple spot ETF filings, with Polymarket suggesting strong approval chances before the end of 2025.

The Odds are Rising

The leading digital asset manager, Grayscale, filed for a spot Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States in February this year. The authority responsible for approving or denying that type of product is the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

Numerous X users have recently pointed out that the agency has until May 29 to either approve or reject Grayscale’s application.

It is important to note that the SEC has a maximum of 240 days to review Grayscale’s proposed spot ADA ETF and may choose to delay its decision multiple times. The regulator officially acknowledged the filing on February 24, meaning it has until October 22 to give its final answer. 

Launching such an investment vehicle will give investors additional options to gain exposure to Cardano’s native token and could positively impact its price. After all, buying a spot ETF is as simple as purchasing regular stocks, all done through standard brokerage accounts. In the aftermath, investors hold shares of the product, while the fund itself acquires and securely holds the underlying cryptocurrency on their behalf.

Toward mid-April, the chances of an approved spot ADA ETF before the end of 2025 dropped to 37% (according to Polymarket). In the past several days, though, there has been renewed optimism, and the odds have risen to 70%.

Nearly a month ago, Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, estimated that the product has a 75% chance of seeing the light of day sometime this year. He later predicted that many of the spot crypto ETF applications standing on the SEC’s desk could receive a green light as early as this summer. 

XRP, SOL, and DOGE Аre Also in the Game

Introducing spot ETFs with various leading altcoins as underlying tokens has been a mission for numerous well-known companies.

XRP leads the number of pending applications in the United States, with active filings submitted by Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, and others. According to Polymarket, the odds of an approved fund before the end of 2025 currently stand at 84%. When moving the deadline to July 31, though, the percentage drops to 22%.  

Solana’s native token has also garnered significant interest. VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise are among the popular names competing to become the first to introduce a spot SOL ETF in America. Polymarket estimates the odds of the financial vehicle to go live in 2025 are 83%.

The biggest meme coin in terms of market capitalization – Dogecoin – is on that list, too. The companies willing to launch a spot DOGE ETF in the world’s largest economy include Bitwise, REX Shares, and 21Shares. The approval chances before July 31 are a mere 16%, but those climb to 67% when the deadline is set for New Year’s Eve.