BTC Price Analysis: Is Bitcoin About to Break Above its ATH and Head to $120K?

Bitcoin’s upward momentum has weakened as it approaches the key $111K resistance zone, increasing the risk of another rejection.

However, bullish sentiment remains intact, with market participants anticipating a breakout, though a renewed influx of demand is essential for any sustained move beyond the all-time high.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Technicals

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

BTC continues to face challenges in surpassing the key $111K resistance level, its current all-time high, after several weeks of consolidation. Despite multiple attempts, intensified selling pressure and profit-taking at this level have repeatedly halted bullish momentum, resulting in sideways price action.

Recently, the cryptocurrency dipped below the $100K support zone, triggering a liquidity sweep and collecting the fuel for a potential new leg up.

However, the subsequent rebound has stalled around the $107K mark, signaling weakening bullish strength. If demand returns and buying pressure increases, a breakout above the $111K ATH could materialize. Otherwise, another rejection is likely, pushing the price back toward the critical $100K support in the coming sessions.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, Bitcoin has been forming a bullish flag just below its all-time high, a pattern typically signaling continuation of the existing uptrend.

Following a liquidity grab beneath the lower boundary of the flag near $100K, Bitcoin rallied toward the upper boundary at $107K. Despite this upward move, the price has entered a low-volatility phase, indicating a loss of momentum as it approaches resistance.

Should a breakout occur early next week, a new all-time high is likely. Conversely, failure to hold above the current level could trigger another drop, sending the price back toward the lower end of the flag. Until then, price action remains confined, with both bulls and bears waiting for confirmation of the next directional move.

Bitcoin On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a sharp decline in Bitcoin reserves held on centralized exchanges, now at their lowest levels in several years.

This ongoing outflow underscores a growing preference for self-custody and accumulation among investors, a pattern typically associated with reduced sell-side pressure and a long-term bullish outlook. A lower supply of readily available BTC on exchanges often sets the stage for potential supply-side shocks during periods of renewed demand.

That said, while dwindling reserves are historically correlated with major bull runs, they should not be viewed as immediate catalysts for short-term price rallies.

Market conditions and liquidity dynamics still play a vital role, and without a corresponding uptick in demand, price corrections remain a possibility. In summary, the exchange reserve trend highlights strong foundational support for Bitcoin, but near-term price action may still be subject to broader macro or technical headwinds.