Bitcoin’s (BTC) Perfect Score: Time to Celebrate or Be Cautious?

TL;DR

• Bitcoin’s recent price surge has supposedly pushed 100% of holders out of paper losses.

• However, historical data suggest caution, as similar periods of high profitability have preceded significant price corrections.

No Paper Losses?

The primary cryptocurrency’s price jumped in the past 24 hours, briefly climbing above $97,500. The positive performance was likely driven by reports that the United States and Chinese officials will hold trade talks this weekend and could potentially discuss the removal or reduction of certain barriers, such as the staggering tariffs.

Somewhat expected, bitcoin’s upswing has benefited investors. Data compiled by IntoTheBlock shows that the percentage of BTC holders currently sitting at paper losses has dropped to 0%. The proportion of those “in the money” is roughly 95%, whereas 5% are at break-even.

According to the analytics platform, 75% of all BTC investors joined the ecosystem more than a year ago, and 21% have done so in the last 12 months. The newest holders (those who entered in the past 30 days) comprise only 4% of the total share. 

Despite its recent resurgence, BTC remains below its all-time high price of almost $110K, registered in mid-January. However, the gap has narrowed, and some analysts believe we might soon witness a fresh peak. 

X user CRYPTOWZRD, for instance, argued that the asset is “in a macro uptrend,” predicting a pump to almost $150,000 in the following months. 

KALEO and Changpeng Zhao (Binance’s former CEO) were even more bullish. The former thinks BTC has the potential to cross $500,000 during this cycle, while the latter believes the valuation could explode to a whopping $1 million. 

Cause for Concern

The stats notifying that no single BTC investor is sitting at a paper loss might sound encouraging, but it could also signal bad news for the bulls.

There have been some occasions in the past when the asset’s valuation experienced a substantial correction after such high (paper) profitability. In October 2024, for example, nearly 95% of BTC holders were sitting at some gains (at least on paper). Back then, the price stood at over $69,000, but shortly after, it briefly plunged below $65,500. Similar cases were observed in September and March last year. 

The Relative Strength Index is another factor suggesting that BTC could head south in the short term. This technical tool measures the speed and magnitude of the latest price changes and helps traders identify possible trend reversals.

It varies from 0 to 100, and ratios above 70 are considered bearish since they hint that the asset has entered oversold territory. The RSI has been on the rise in the past 24 hours, currently standing at around 66. According to CryptoWaves, this flashes the “Close to Sell” signal.