Bitcoin Up 25% Since April: Expert Sees Bullish Signals in Miner Data

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded sharply in the last three weeks, climbing at least 25% from its April 9 low of just under $74,000 to trade above $96,500 as of early May.

The bounce has come against a backdrop of waning volatility, a drying supply of BTC on exchanges, and increasing on-chain accumulation.

Miner Metrics Signal a Bottom

Beyond the price action, Bitcoin maximalist Robert Breedlove sees a deeper story unfolding, one rooted in miner economics, long-term behavior, and global liquidity trends. According to him, BTC may be on the cusp of a major bull run, with key indicators flashing green.

In a post on X, the podcast creator spotlighted a critical metric, the average miner cost of production, which he said has historically served as a reliable indicator of market bottoms. He noted that the average miner break-even cost has often coincided with major cycle bottoms since 2016.

The premise isn’t far-fetched since assets rarely trade below their production cost in a rational market. This factor has often pushed out unprofitable miners, reducing supply and eventually pushing prices higher.

Citing data from Blockware, Breedlove stated that currently, the average market break-even line is signaling another floor, potentially setting the stage for a fresh bull run.

Another optimistic signal comes from Bitcoin’s long-term holders. These are investors who refuse to sell despite volatility. The analyst noted that over the past 30 days, such holders have accumulated an additional 150,000 BTC, creating the perfect condition for a supply shock and eventual price pump.

On-chain data shows whales purchased roughly $4 billion worth of Bitcoin in the last two weeks of April, a trend paralleled by renewed inflows into spot BTC ETFs, which saw sustained accumulation from April 17 to April 30.

Meanwhile, the amount of the flagship cryptocurrency on exchanges has fallen to a five-year low. “Bitcoin is running out of sellers in the $80K to $100K range,” Breedlove said, reinforcing the growing scarcity thesis.

Liquidity Can Spur BTC Boom

Further supporting his sunny outlook is a macroeconomic backdrop that’s becoming quite favorable for BTC. The market watcher drew attention to the cryptocurrency’s high correlation with the U.S. dollar and global fiat liquidity, a point often harped on by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

With central banks easing controls and rising global liquidity, the “What is Money” host expects more capital to flow into risk assets, including crypto.

According to Breedlove, the rise of ETFs, institutional custody solutions, and BTC-backed financial products has only amplified this effect, making it easier for new money to flow into crypto.

“Bitcoin is highly correlated to fiat liquidity – and that’s becoming increasingly more of the case as ETFs, Bitcoin Treasury Companies, and Convertible Bonds, provide easier access for new liquidity to enter the Bitcoin market.”