Bitcoin Price Outlook: 3 Bullish and 2 Bearish Factors to Watch

TL;DR

• Bitcoin continues to show signs of strength, with indicators pointing toward sustained interest and potential for continued growth.
• While sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, similar conditions in the past have sometimes preceded sharp corrections, reminding investors to stay vigilant.

The Bullish Elements

Bitcoin (BTC) made history on May 22 by surging to nearly $112,000 – its highest level ever. Since then, it has pulled back to $108,600 (according to CoinGecko), but several factors suggest that there is still fuel left for further gains.

Earlier today (May 29), the popular analyst Ali Martinez revealed that more than 30,000 BTC have been moved off exchanges in the last 30 days. Calculated in current rates, the stash equals over $3.2 billion.

Such a development suggests that investors have shifted from centralized platforms to self-custody solutions, which reduces the immediate selling pressure.

According to CryptoQuant’s data, the asset’s supply on exchanges currently stands at less than 2.45 million BTC, which is the lowest point observed since the summer of 2018. 

The following factor is the growing inflows toward the spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that the last day with a negative daily netflow was May 13. Since then, the funds have attracted over $4.1 billion in the span of just a couple of weeks.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), for instance, has recorded 33 consecutive days of inflows, accumulating nearly $4 billion over the last two weeks. The investment vehicle now ranks among the top five ETFs (out of over 4,200 products) in terms of inflows for 2025.

Last but not least, we’ll take a look at BTC’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. As the name suggests, it compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization and helps traders identify whether the asset is undervalued or overvalued.

Over the past month, the ratio has been hovering in the healthy zone of 2-2.50, indicating that there is still room for price growth. CryptoQuant claims that historically, values above 3.70 have indicated market tops, while figures below 1 have pointed out bottoms.

Something for the Bears

Contrary to the optimistic landscape, there are some concerns to consider. IntoTheBlock’s data shows that, as of the moment, no single BTC investor is sitting on paper losses, while a staggering 98% have made some profits (at least on paper) on their initial investments.

This might sound encouraging, but in the past, such trends were sometimes followed by a price pullback. In October 2024, about 95% of BTC holders were in profit as the asset’s valuation topped $69,000 before briefly falling below $65,500. A similar pattern was also seen in September and March last year. 

As reported earlier today, Santiment also believes that such high numbers of investors in profit could spell trouble for the asset as they tend to realize profits.

We now move on to the popular Fear & Greed Index, whose ratio has been in either “Greed” or “Extreme Greed” territory since May 5. The metric examines various factors, including price fluctuations, survey responses, and social media activity, to assess the ongoing investor sentiment toward the cryptocurrency.

It appears that there is growing optimism and an increasing appetite for BTC, but let’s not forget that the crypto market is unpredictable, and price movements often defy the crowd’s expectations. One should also keep in mind Warren Buffett’s famous advice, who once said people should “be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”