CryptoPotato
CryptoPotato
  • Crypto News
  • Margin Trading
  • Guides
    • Bitcoin & Crypto Guides 101
    • Bitcoin For Beginners
    • Editorials
  • DeFi & NFT
  • Buy
  • Language
  • Crypto News
  • Bitcoin For Beginners
  • Cryptocurrency Guides 101
  • Editorials
  • Bitcoin & Crypto Margin Trading
  • DeFi & NFT News
  • Bitcoin Price Analysis
  • CryptoPotato Crypto Fund
  • Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
  • Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis
  • Market Updates
  • Interviews
  • Buy Bitcoin with Card
  • bitcoin
    BTC$27,668.00
  • ethereum
    ETH$1,756.71
    • Market Updates
    • BTC Analysis
    • ETH Analysis
    • XRP Analysis
    • Interviews
    • Opinions
    CryptoPotato
    CryptoPotato
    • Crypto News
    • Margin Trading
    • Guides
      • Bitcoin & Crypto Guides 101
      • Bitcoin For Beginners
      • Editorials
    • DeFi & NFT
    • Buy
    • Language
    • Crypto News
    • Bitcoin For Beginners
    • Cryptocurrency Guides 101
    • Editorials
    • Bitcoin & Crypto Margin Trading
    • DeFi & NFT News
    • Bitcoin Price Analysis
    • CryptoPotato Crypto Fund
    • Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
    • Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis
    • Market Updates
    • Interviews
    • Buy Bitcoin with Card
    Home » Crypto News » Bitcoin Price Might See a Post-Halving Dump To $6750 If 2016 Miners’ Capitulation Repeats

    Bitcoin Price Might See a Post-Halving Dump To $6750 If 2016 Miners’ Capitulation Repeats

    Author: Greg Thomson

    Last Updated May 24, 2020 @ 15:45

    The gap between Bitcoin’s hashrate and its mining difficulty has led to a miners capitulation –  which could result in a major Bitcoin price dump.

    As pointed out by trader and popular YouTuber TheMoon, large discrepancies between hashrate and mining difficulty have typically resulted in a sudden departure of Bitcoin miners in the past. This, in turn, has historically been followed by a significant BTC price drop.

    Seen below is a chart analysis that points out the crossover between the moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate and mining difficulty.

    the_moon_bitcoin_hash_miners-min
    Source: TheMoon, YouTube.

    TheMoon points out the historical trend which saw Bitcoin regularly fall in value – for a brief period – following its block reward halvings. This can be explained by the fact that many smaller miners drop out of the mining race when their rewards are cut in half.

    This was witnessed in 2016’s block reward halving, which took place on July 9 of that year. The price of Bitcoin lost 21% in the three weeks following the halving event – from $654 to $517. If history repeats itself, then we can expect Bitcoin to drop to $6750 following a 2020 halving price of $8,550.

    ADVERTISEMENT
    bitcoin_2016_halving_price_drop
    2016 Halving, followed by the 21% price decrease. Source: CoinGecko

    Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is updated every 2,106 blocks – which is roughly every two weeks. That contrasts with its hashrate, which is updated and tracked daily. It’s between the gaps in these statistics that many of Bitcoin’s miners fall.

    According to data from Bitinfocharts, Bitcoin’s hashrate has fallen 38% since the date of the block reward halving.

    bitcoin_hashrate_post_halving
    Source: Bitinfocharts.com

    Meanwhile, data from BTC.com shows that Bitcoin’s mining difficulty was reduced by just 6% in the same period. In 11 days from now, BTC’s mining difficulty will be reduced by 6% again, possibly leaving the door open for some outpriced miners to return, but not many.

    The gap between hashrate and mining difficulty remains wide. As The Moon pointed out on May 24, the prospect of a BTC price drop remains well within the range of historical probability.

    However, while this signal is a strong one, it may not be worth acting on just yet. According to The Moon:

    “I’m not gonna sell just based on this on-chain indicator. I think that technical indicators need to be the priority. On-chain indicators can be used as a backdrop, and used in confluence with technical indicators.”

    SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)
    Binance Free $100 (Exclusive): Use this link to register and receive $100 free and 10% off fees on Binance Futures first month (terms).

    PrimeXBT Special Offer: Use this link to register & enter POTATO50 code to receive up to $7,000 on your deposits.

    You Might Also Like:

    • filb2
      $14,000 By End of 2020 a Reasonable Target for Bitcoin's Price: Filb Filb in Exclusive Trader's Digest
    • bitcoin_lava_flow_cover
      Bitcoin Miners' Exchange Flow Surges By 270%: Possible Price Dip Incoming?
    • bitcoin bullish
      Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon Could Indicate Imminent Price Increase
    Tags: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Bitcoin Halving Bitcoin Hash Rate The Moon Carl
    Enjoy reading? Share with your friends
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Telegram

    About The Author

    Greg Thomson
    More posts by this author

    Greg is a journalist from Glasgow, Scotland who covers the cryptocurrency and blockchain beat. He has contributed to some of the foremost publications in the industry and joined CryptoPotato in 2020. Contact Greg

  • bitcoin
    BTC$27,668.00
  • ethereum
    ETH$1,756.71
  • Join Our Community

    FacebookTwitter YouTubeTelegram


    Editorials
    Artificial Intelligence & Crypto Guide: Here Are the Top 5 AI Coins

    Artificial Intelligence & Crypto Guide: Here Are the Top 5 AI Coins

    How to Keep Your Crypto Safe, MetaMask Future Plans, and Digital Identities: Talking Wallets With PM Alex Jupiter

    How to Keep Your Crypto Safe, MetaMask Future Plans, and Digital Identities: Talking Wallets With PM Alex Jupiter

    What is Optimism (OP): Guide to One of Ethereum’s Layer-Two Scaling Solutions

    What is Optimism (OP): Guide to One of Ethereum’s Layer-Two Scaling Solutions

    Why ZK-Rollups Are the Future of Ethereum Scaling: Interview with StarkWare PM Gal Ron

    Why ZK-Rollups Are the Future of Ethereum Scaling: Interview with StarkWare PM Gal Ron

    2022 Was Crypto’s Dot Com Bust: Let’s Recap Tech Stocks After 2000 (Opinion)

    2022 Was Crypto’s Dot Com Bust: Let’s Recap Tech Stocks After 2000 (Opinion)

    How Long Will the Ethereum LSD Narrative Last? Talking 2023 Trends with Nansen’s Martin Lee

    How Long Will the Ethereum LSD Narrative Last? Talking 2023 Trends with Nansen’s Martin Lee

    Everything That’s Going on With Pi Network: From Start to Latest Controversial Listing

    Everything That’s Going on With Pi Network: From Start to Latest Controversial Listing

    Join Our Newsletter
    Become a CryptoPotato VIP
    One Weekly Email Can Change Your Crypto Life.
    Sign-up FREE to receive our extended weekly market update and coin analysis report
    We NEVER send spam. You can unsubscribe at any time.
    Invalid email address
    Thanks for subscribing!
    Footer Logo
    About
    Advertise on CryptoPotato
    About Us | Contact Us | Careers
    Editorial Policy
    Terms of service | Privacy Policy | GDPR
    More Sections
    IEO List | Evaluations
    Airdrops
    Scholarship
    Disclaimer
    Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. Full disclaimer
    © Copyright CryptoPotato 2016 - 2021
    Scroll to top
    One Weekly Email Can Change Your Crypto Life.

    Sign-up FREE to receive our extended weekly market update and coin analysis report

    We never send SPAM. You can unsubscribe at any moment
    Invalid email address
    Thanks for subscribing!