Bitcoin Price Analysis Feb.22: Consolidation Time – Will BTC Be Able To Gain Momentum For a $4K Breakup?

Over the past two days since our last price analysis, Bitcoin had been consolidating between a tight range of the support and resistance levels of $3850 and $3950. This was anticipated following the latest decent bullish move. So far, it seems that the correction to is considered healthy.

Besides the Bitcoin chart, the BitFinex open short positions (the following third chart) seem to be at an exciting point: following the breakdown of the long-term one year ascending trend-line, BTC shorts found support around the 19K support line. However, during the recent hours the number of shorts is decreasing towards the 19K mark – as of now, there are 19,260 BTC of open positions. Will it get choppy as the shorts get closer to 19K?

The overall picture hasn’t changed much since our previous BTC analysis, except from the daily chart’s Stochastic RSI oscillator which had crossed over.

Looking at the 1-day & 4-hour charts

– Support and resistance levels: From above, breaking up the $3950 area, would likely to send Bitcoin to retest the $4050 resistance, before getting to the significant $4200 level.

– From below: Resistance turned support areas at $3800 – $3850 (along with 38.2% Fib retracement level at $3830), $3700 area (along with 61.8% Fib retracement level at $3723), and $3600 famous area (along with MA-50 of the 1-day chart).

– The daily chart’s RSI: Trades pretty healthy around the buyers’ zone. However, the Stochastic RSI oscillator had recently crossed over at the overbought area. This could trigger a correction to the mentioned support levels above.

– The daily trading volume had been decreasing over the days. With not much movement it was expected.

– As mentioned before, BitFinex’s open short positions number is trading close to the horizontal support line. By looking on the open long positions, which are decreasing, we can safely say that it doesn’t seem like a price manipulation (as it happened before in crypto).

BTC/USD BitStamp 4-Hour chart

BTC/USD BitStamp 1-Day chart

BTC Open Short Positions (BitFinex)