Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Consolidation Continues but Bearish Signs Flash

After multiple failed attempts to break above the $108K resistance, Bitcoin is consolidating within a tightening range, showing signs of distribution. The market is caught between two liquidity zones: the buy-side above $108K and the sell-side beneath $100K, while the price slowly gravitates toward the lower boundary.

Momentum has weakened as seen in the RSI drop below 50 on both daily and 4H timeframes, suggesting bearish pressure is gaining control.

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin remains stuck in a broader consolidation pattern, forming a descending triangle just below a major resistance level. The RSI is holding around 46, and the price is still above the key trendline depicted in orange. This structure reflects a classic re-accumulation or distribution phase.

If the bulls fail to reclaim $108K with conviction, the ascending trendline becomes a likely magnet. Moreover, the orange 100-day MA and the blue 200-day MA are still pointing up but have narrowed near the $95K region, indicating a slowdown in trend strength.

The daily range between $100K–$108K is critical. So far, buyers have absorbed dips into the $101K–$103K zone, but continued lower highs and failure to flip the $108K area into support suggest the market may be preparing for a deeper sweep of liquidity.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, the price action has formed a clear descending channel. The lower highs show consistent bearish pressure, while support at $103.5K is being tested repeatedly.

This is often a bearish continuation pattern, and with RSI around 41, the momentum leans toward the downside. The failure to break through the fair value gap (FVG) around $106K, and even failing to test it, confirms that sellers are defending the premium levels efficiently.

Currently, market participants can expect a quick sweep of the double sell-side liquidity levels marked around $102K and $103K. A break and close below these levels could open up a run toward the key daily demand at the $100K area. Meanwhile, any upside breakout above $110K must begin with a reclaim of the FVG zone convincingly to flip short-term sentiment.

On-Chain Analysis

Exchange Whale Ratio

The whale ratio on exchanges has surged above 0.55, its highest point in over a year, which is typically considered a warning signal. This metric measures the proportion of the top 10 inflows to total inflows on exchanges. Historically, a rising whale ratio means large holders are increasingly active on exchanges, likely preparing to sell. This shift often precedes corrections or sharp volatility, especially when retail activity is cooling off.

Combining this with stagnant price action below key resistance, the current whale behavior suggests cautious distribution rather than aggressive accumulation. If the whale ratio remains elevated while BTC trades sideways or drops further, it strengthens the case for a liquidity sweep below $100K before any potential continuation higher.