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Macroeconomic uncertainty gripped markets after US President Donald Trump threatened Iran’s supreme leader, which caused Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to drop in response.
Despite this, BTC may be on track for significant gains in 2025 if it follows its long-established yearly performance pattern, according to new analysis of long-term price cycles.
BTC on Track for 120% Gain in 2025?
Data shows that since 2011, Bitcoin has followed a recurring four-year rhythm – three years of upward growth followed by one year of consolidation – mirroring the cryptocurrency’s halving cycle. With 2023 and 2024 already closing as positive years, 2025 would represent the third and typically strongest year in the cycle.
If this historical trend continues, BTC’s price could rise by roughly 120% by the end of 2025, according to the latest analysis by CryptoQuant. Starting from a base of $93,226, that would take the leading cryptocurrency to around $205,097, which could potentially mark the cycle’s peak.
The analysis stated that Bitcoin is now in the final bullish phase of its current cycle, which may have important implications for investor strategy and timing.
The latest prediction stands in contrast to the often short-term focus of on-chain metrics like MVRV ratios, UTXO bands, and SOPR readings, which, while valuable, can miss the broader structural forces shaping price action, CryptoQuant’s analysis explained.
Meanwhile, the long-term view is further supported by Realized Cap data, which continues to print new all-time highs this year, indicating steady market strength.
“Bitcoin adheres to a structural rhythm that repeats with striking consistency: three years of expansion followed by one of compression. This long-term lens helps investors stay grounded during short-term volatility and align better with Bitcoin’s historical performance.”
Strong Institutional Interest in Bitcoin
This long-term optimism is mirrored in institutional behavior, with continued capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs despite the broader market pullback. Data from SoSoValue revealed that these funds recorded $216 million in net inflows on June 17th, which marked seven straight days of inflows.
Interestingly, more than $1.46 billion was added over the last five trading sessions.
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