Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin at $1M: Here’s How It Compares to Wall Street Forecasts

Earlier in the week, ex-Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes laid out his most audacious Bitcoin (BTC) forecast yet: a staggering $1 million price tag by 2028.

He didn’t back down when pressed days later in a follow-up interview with analyst Kyle Chassé, instead laying out a roadmap for how global financial chaos will make it inevitable.

The $1 Million Thesis

In a series of posts on X, Chassé unpacked Hayes’ thought process, revealing the Maelstrom CIO’s prediction envisions a radical scenario where BTC is no longer just a speculative asset, but the ultimate hedge against a global financial system possibly teetering on collapse.

According to Hayes, the world is splitting into economic blocs, with the U.S. and China locked in a slow-motion decoupling. If traditional systems falter, the crypto investor expects the ensuing Treasury buybacks, bond market panic, and what he calls “monetary detonation” will nudge institutions to flee to BTC.

“Bitcoin isn’t risk-on anymore,” Chassé echoed. “It’s system-off.”

In his post, the crypto influencer explained that Hayes’ estimations will possibly play out in two phases: a surge to $250,000 by late 2025 as liquidity floods markets, followed by a moonshot to seven figures triggered by “ballooning deficits, debasement, and unstoppable digital scarcity.”

Corporate Forecasts

While some may consider the BitMEX co-founder’s view too ambitious, it’s not entirely disconnected from where parts of the traditional financial world see Bitcoin heading. Several firms have recently upgraded their BTC price targets amid strong demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, reduced post-halving supply, and favorable macro backdrops.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and H.C. Wainwright both land near Hayes’ interim target, forecasting $225,000 to $250,000 for 2025. BlackRock and Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya come closest to Hayes’s million-dollar prediction at $700,000 and $500,000, respectively.

Meanwhile, Standard-Chartered and Matrixport have lifted their year-end targets to $200,000, while VanEck sees the possibility of a cycle top that reaches as high as $250,000.

While the projections fall far short of the $1 million mark, they are finally recognizing BTC’s potential to move well beyond its previous all-time highs.